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Forum:2011 Pacific hurricane season/1
Mid-season forecasts What are you guy mid-season forecasts. Mines is 14-9-4. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE '''C'yclone] '''Darren23Edits|Mail 20:18, July 9, 2011 (UTC) HurricaneSpin's Atlantic: 16-13-8-5-1 (Maria) ACE=108 Pacific: 18-14-7-3-0 (Norma) ACE=101 - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 20:26, July 9, 2011 (UTC) Oh yeah, ATL. I'm going with 16 (±3) NS, 8(±2) H, 5(±1) MH, ≥0 C5, or above normal with an ACE of 110-195, or (assuming median ACE is 87.5) 125-222% above normal mean because conditions are still very favorable for significant development in the season. Darren23Edits|Mail 20:57, July 9, 2011 (UTC) Mines are 14-10-6. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE '''C'yclone] 17:06, August 16, 2011 (UTC) Mine is also 14-10-6 (please see my blog [2]). Hurricane Andrew (444) 18:32, August 16, 2011 (UTC) EPAC hurricane drought Any overdue areas in the EPAC? YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 17:06, August 16, 2011 (UTC) The peak of the EPAC season is gone, so what are your late season predictions? Mine is 12-9-4. [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User:Andrew444 '''Hurricane] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:Andrew444 Andrew] ([http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_blog:Andrew444 444]) 00:31, September 10, 2011 (UTC) I am expecting a near-normal season here, if not slightly below normal, and I am calling for, say 14-16 storms, 6-8 hurricanes, and 2-4 majors, but no category 5's. Until Calvin dissipates, I guess the next thing to watch is 08W in the WPac, which is currently Goring by PAGASA and could become future Ma-on. Ryan1000 19:24, July 9, 2011 (UTC) :I'm gonna go to the lower end of all y'all's forecasts and go for 12 NS, 7 H, 3 MH and also no C5's (EPAC only, I hate forecasting CPAC). Apparently, this is close to the CPC forecast of a median of 12 NS, 6.5 H and 2 MH. Here's my monthly forecast: **Jun: 2TS, 2H, 1MH **Jul: 3TS, 1H, 0MH **Aug: 3TS, 2H, 1MH **Sep: 3TS, 2H, 1MH **Oct: 1TS, 0H, 0MH **Nov: 0TS, 0H, 0MH **Dec: Heck no *My predictions: :Atlantic: 16-8-4-2 :Pacific: 14-7-3-0 :Yqt1001 21:49, July 9, 2011 (UTC) : :I think the Atlantic will have 14-9-5. IMO, the pacific is more tricky since we already have had the first three storms become hurricanes and 1 major. I would go with 11-12 storms, 6-8 hurricanes, and 1-5 majors (I wouldn't be suprised if the season ends up like 2010 and has no majors through peak of season.) :ACE for the Atlantic should be around 150. The Pacific ACE should be between 50-80. Suprise11 22:53, July 9, 2011 (UTC) :2010? Why is 2010 being discussed? Do you realize that the 2010 PHS an anomaly? The environment is much more favorable than 2010. In fact, if this seaosn shuts down later this month, and pulls a 2010/1977, I will be shocked. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE '''C'yclone] 22:57, July 9, 2011 (UTC) :While 2010 was anomaly (Number of June storms, June C5, lack of activity afterward), because we are in the inactive Pacific era, a repeat will not be surprising, but it is not really expected. And YE, an interment is a burial :P '''Darren23Edits|Mail 23:11, July 9, 2011 (UTC) :It will be surprising, because a 2010 type season has occurred only twice in the past 44 years. So the odds of an 2010 type season is 1/22.YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE '''C'yclone] 23:29, July 9, 2011 (UTC) : :I meant 2010 in terms of the possibility of no majors through peak of season. For example, despite 2003's high number of named storms, there were no majors. Suprise11 23:36, July 9, 2011 (UTC) ::Given the fact that we already have three major and one cane, it is unlikely that we will have no majors in the season. Most years have a Baja storm that becomes an MH if not an MH fish storm. In fact, I could only find two seasons since 1977 with no MH's during the peak (2003 and 2010). Odds=1/12. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 23:43, July 9, 2011 (UTC) :: ::True. I gave a big range since because of the difficulty for me to predict majors for this season. I honestly think we will get 2 more majors for a total of 3 majors. This is inside my range. Suprise11 23:50, July 9, 2011 (UTC) :I'm not entirely sure, but I do believe that a 2010 repeat is next to impossible here. Not to say a 2010 repeat won't happen, but the chances are not good. I changed the tables below the forumheader and the WAD(Worldwide activity discussion) now has it's own forum. I expect a major or two to come in the season's peak, but per 2003 and last year, that's not a gurantee, but again, it's not likely we won't have a peak-season major hurricane this year. The only thing out there as of now is the new TD in the WPac(excluding Calvin, he's pretty much gone). ''Ryan1000 01:33, July 10, 2011 (UTC) : :Well... my predictions are on the worldwide discusssion page, but here are my E. Pac and C.Pac mid- season forecasts. And for the E.Pac, we've seen 3-3-1 already, but anywho: :E.Pac: :14-7-2-0 (get down to Max + one Atlantic crossover) ACE= ~105 Net TC activity: 101% :C.Pac (note: crossover(s) from the EPac are excluded): :(2-4)-(1-3)-(0-2)-(0-1) ACE = ~20 :I believe in the CPac, we'll get down to Unala, possibly Wali, or if the CPac wants to be like 1982, Ana. :For my other forecasts, go to the WAD and 2011-12 S. Hem pages. Andrew444 13:32, July 10, 2011 (UTC) : EPAC hurricane drought Any overdue areas in the EPAC? YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE '''C'yclone] 17:06, August 16, 2011 (UTC) YE, Southern California is overdue. Last hurricane to make landfall was in 1858, and the last tropical storm was in 1939. However, numerous depressions have made landfall since then. Suprise11 17:24, August 16, 2011 (UTC) : :Suprise11, the 1858 hurricane did bring hurricane force winds ashore, but it actually just barely missed landfall. Hurricane Andrew (444) 18:39, August 16, 2011 (UTC) :Don't forget western Central America.Cyclone10 21:35, August 27, 2011 (UTC) :Well, Agatha last year made landfall in Guatemala, unless you mean hurricane ''landfall. Then, I don't know when the last time that happened. Hurricane Andrew (444) 23:17, August 27, 2011 (UTC) :If you use SNM data, Adrian 05 made landfall in Central America. If you use NHC data, never :P. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season '''T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 00:15, August 28, 2011 (UTC) :I meant hurricane strength at landfall.10L.NONAME 21:47, August 28, 2011 (UTC)(Cyclone10) Late-Season forecasts Because I believe we're heading for an EPAC shutdown due to the waters getting colder in EPAC, mine is 9-7-3 '''Darren23Edits|Mail 12:54, September 10, 2011 (UTC) *I think two to three storms mine is 10-7-3Allanjeffs 19:17, September 10, 2011 (UTC) :I think we will have an October major hurricane coming our way, and another hurricane also in October or late September. So my call is 9-7-3 as well, with an ACE/storm near-normal or slightly above average. The ACE/storm in ATL will suck this year because we've only had one hurricane for every 7 storms. 2007 had 2 for every 5, with an ACE/storm of 4.6. Even if we do get a lot of strong storms after this date, I still expect the ACE/storm to be below average. I expect the maximum possibility to be 6, and that might be a little generous even so. 'Ryan1000 14:06, September 11, 2011 (UTC) :Over in the ATL forum I said 9-12 depressions, 9-11 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes and 0-1 category 5 hurricanes (I don't know why I never included majors, but for majors I'm going with 3-4) Yqt1001 19:40, September 11, 2011 (UTC) :Yeah, EPAC's dead. While sort-of improbable (I give it a 40% chance of happening), we could beat/tie the record low for the # of storms. And EPAC is like... 54% below average in terms of ACE, which is pretty much like the NHEM totals. (ACE/Storm, depending on storm numbers, is sometimes a terrible indicator of the activity). While I didn't think it could happen, it looks like we have a slightly more active version of 2010. Darren23Edits|Mail 15:37, September 18, 2011 (UTC) :We may have Hilary of the new AOI and maybe Irwin in october the most to me will be Keneth and that it is for me Allanjeffs 23:56, September 18, 2011 (UTC) : I personally prefer to use ACE/storm because a season could only have a few storms but incredible ACE, or a ton of storms and a horrible ACE, so if you take the number of storms it had in proportion to the number of storms of another season, the ACE skyrockets or plummets. And this year's EPac season could be on the road to having the highest ACE/storm since at least 1995, if not higher. Ryan1000 20:19, September 21, 2011 (UTC) Retirements at a Glance Started this section early. With three hurricanes at hand, I just felt like starting this section. Anywho, what are your predictions? Mine: *'Adrian - 1%' No effects on land, intensity doesn't earn retirements. *'Beatriz - 10%' Impact not significant, while there are 4 deaths, I don't think it's going to be retired. *'Calvin - 1%' Was indeed an interesting storm. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 21:07, July 8, 2011 (UTC) :Well, there are no storms with any reasonable chance of retirement, but if I had to put a number on it? I would put 5% to Beatriz and keep everyone else, since they did nothing. However, the season is far from over, and there is always a possibility of a destructive late-season storm like Kenna or Pauline. As of now, i'd wait on this section. I also made this in the WPac forum just now, but it should wait there too. Ryan1000 22:47, July 8, 2011 (UTC) : : :Here are mine: : :Adrian - 2% 'I don't think so, intensities don't determine retirements. And Adrian's staying, unless he pulls a Knut out of the hat. :'Beatriz '- 7%' Unless we get an Alma- like situation, no. 4 deaths are not enough, and Mexico has gone through worse than her. :Calvin - 0% 'He's gonna stay, no matter what. The end. :'Dora - 3% 'See Adrian's section. :'Eugene - 1% 'See Dora's, Calvin's, and Adrian's sections. :'Fernanda - 0% - 'History doesn't earn retirement. :'Greg - 0% - 'No. :'Hilary - 5% - 'See Adrian's, Dora's, and Eugene's section. :'Irwin - 1% - 'Became a hurricane, lived through shear, that's it. :'Jova - 44% - '''$203 million?! That's more than Kenna! ''KENNA, for Pete's sake! She may be gone next spring. :Kenneth - 1% - 'The only November major hurricane in EPAC history! The 1% is for what he was able to accomplish. :And I wouldn't be surprised if Beatriz is retired, you know of the EPac's storm history (for example, they let Alma, a storm that did next to nothing (but Alma does means "soul" in Spanish) get sacrificed, while they set a monster, Agatha, free. That's pathetic). Andrew444 02:26, July 9, 2011 (UTC) Here are mine (Until Calvin) *Adrian – 0%:Unless it's some dictator's name, hell no. *Beatriz – 2%:Why the heck would this one be retired? *Calvin – 0%:I love fish :P 'Darren23 | 02:38, July 9, 2011 (UTC) :A bit early but here are mine: ::Adrian; 0%: ^ what Darren said ::Beatriz; 4%: Arlene hurt Mexico more, and Mexico seems resilient to retire names anymore ::Calvin; 0%: Became a hurricane, but that's it. ::Dora; 0%: Didn't do much other than RI. ::Eugene; 0%: ^ same as Dora. ::Fernanda; 0%: Got into the CPac, but that isn't a retirement worthy feat. ::Greg; 0%: ^ same as Calvin. ::Hilary; 1%; Landslides in Mexico, but that is nothing compared to the damage from Beatriz and Jova. ::Jova; 4%: Rather similar impacts to Beatriz. ::Irwin; A Philippe-esque storm, but his intensity roller coaster wasn't as intense as Philippe and the origins are different. Still, 0% chance though. Yqt1001 00:03, October 17, 2011 (UTC) : Yqt1001 20:42, September 22, 2011 (UTC) Here are mine: * Adrian: 1% Not enough impact * Beatriz: 5% Did not devastate the economy * Calvin 0% YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] *Adrian:0% Nothing done. *Beatriz: 5% Slightly affected Mexico, but sometimes EPAC retirements can be surprises. *Calvin: 0% Who was this? *Dora: 1% Fun to track, but that doesn't mean retirement. *Eugene: 1% Won't be retired. *Fernanda: 0% Hurricane streak ended here, but no retirement. *Greg: 0% See Calvin's section. *Hilary: 0% She was a powerful, long lasting hurricane. That's it. *Irwin: 0% Irwin was like an EPAC Philippe. Didn't affect land alot. *Jova: 5% See Beatriz's section. '''HurricaneOwen99 19:21, October 22, 2011 (UTC) *Adrian: 1% - Unless he pulls an Adolph, no. *Beatriz: 10% - Some impact in Mexico, but not terribly significant. That said, there is the possibility that she could pull an Alma. *Calvin: 0% - Became a hurricane... and did absolutely nothing else. *Dora: 1% - Was fun as hell to track, but as Jake said about Danielle last year, beauty doesn't earn retirement. *Eugene: 1% - See Adrian and Dora's sections. *Fernanda: 0% - And so passes the first epic fail of the year (well, for the EPAC anyway). *Greg: 0% - See Calvin's section. --HurricaneMaker99 17:24, August 20, 2011 (UTC) Here are my(official)EPac percentages as of now. *Adrian - 1% - Just because he was so freakin' awesome. *Beatriz - 5% - Some deaths, some damage, but enough for retirement? Probrably not. *Calvin - 0% - There are two reasons why this thing shouldn't be retired:Number 1, and of course number 2!(end sarcasm) *Dora - 0% - Didn't pull off what Adrian did, so no credit for her. *Eugene - 1% - See Adrian. *Fernanda - 0% - Finally the hurricane streak ends, and it didn't do anything but spin fish. *Greg - 0% - See Calvin. *Hilary - 0% - It was strong and long-lasting, but that doesn't earn retirement. *Irwin - 0% - It was long-lasting and persistent, but never affected land. *Jova - 35% - Damages upped to over 200 million, so we could have an outside chance of losing Jova next spring. *Kenneth - 0% - It came as a surprise so late in the season, but if it didn't affect land, it still can't be retired. Ryan1000 22:30, August 24, 2011 (UTC) Here's mine: *Adrian, Calvin, Eugene, Fernanda, Greg, Hilary, Irwin, and Kenneth - 0% - they're all fishspinners. *Beatriz - 5% - At least it had fatalities and affected land. *Dora - 5% - Rain's not helping, but it does help Arizona and other states. *Jova - 30% - $200 million is a lot. Cyclone10 Talk Hurricane 03:03,12/10/2011 Adrian,Calvin,Dora,Eugene,Fernanda,Greg all 0% because they didn´t do anything Beatriz 5% Arlene hurt more than this and she ws even helpful to a drought that was in that part of Mexico Hillary 5% some flood but that part have seen a lot worse Irwin ? Jova? Allanjeffs 15:14, October 8, 2011 (UTC) So, here's my summary of what and what's not going: Staying (<4%): Adrian, Calvin, Dora, Eugene, Fernanda, Greg, Irwin, Kenneth Possibly not (5-10%): Beatriz, Hilary Possibly so (11-80%): Jova Gone (>80%): No retirees Hurricane Andrew (444) 12:06, October 13, 2011 (UTC)